U.S. Economy Slows: Is a Recession Imminent?

After a year of unexpectedly strong growth, the U.S. economy is beginning to show signs of slowing down. The July jobs report revealed softer-than-expected figures, with the unemployment rate rising for the fourth consecutive month. This has led to a market sell-off and increased concerns that a recession may be on the horizon. In response to these recent developments, J.P. Morgan Research has raised the likelihood of a U.S. and global recession occurring before the end of 2024 to 35%, up from 25% in their mid-year outlook. This shift reflects growing uncertainties in economic indicators, as key aspects of the growth forecast are being challenged. Slower Labor Demand and Weakening Global Manufacturing Bruce Kasman, Chief Global Economist at J.P. Morgan, noted that recent data points to a sharper-than-expected weakening in labor demand, with early signs of job shedding emerging. Business surveys also suggest a slowdown in global manufacturing and in the Eurozone—regions that were ...